USA has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump chooses
USA forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, USA potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from USA President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.
Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new USA military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halte
d full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.
“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told USA NEWS. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.
The incident followed Iranian claims that seven oil tankers had caught fire or sustained damage in and around the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, while on Wednesday, Iran also announced what it describes as a shift towards an “offensive” military doctrine, warning that countries hosting bases used in US attacks could become targets.
“Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Hossein Mohebi said.
The warning raises the prospect of a confrontation spreading further across the region, with energy infrastructure and countries aligned with Washington potentially exposed. “Iran is also drawing up its own target lists to include energy infrastructure and US-aligned states,” Norman said.
“So I would say both parties are certainly very prepared for another round of escalation and projecting preparedness to each other.”
“In the meantime, there is a very high risk of miscalculation by either side, a very high risk of rapid escalation.”
October has become the worst month for attacks on ships since the war began in February, with more than 120 attacks reported so far.
The timing is politically sensitive, with Trump facing pressure to avoid renewed escalation before the US midterm elections, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing for an attack as his support dwindles in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s election.
It comes after Netanyahu said overthrowing Iran’s government remains Israel’s “primary objective”.
Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies in Qatar, said recent developments pointed towards renewed fighting rather than a diplomatic breakthrough. “There is a lot of signalling, a lot of posturing suggesting that we are headed for another round of fighting,” he told Al Jazeera.
He pointed to Hegseth’s recent visit to Israel, and Washington’s reported withdrawal of personnel from regional diplomatic and military sites. “All of that would suggest that the US and Israel are planning [another round of attacks] on Iran, either soon or very soon,” he said.
“One of the fears is this next round of fighting could actually be more dangerous, more catastrophic than the previous round.”
Norman added that while the US president may be eyeing up a strike on Iran after the midterms, “the big question for Trump from military advisers is – what would a further round of escalation bring that the other rounds didn’t?”
“What would these strategies do to force Iran to the negotiating table? And I don’t think there has been a clear answer to that.”
Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, and it would therefore be harder for the American military to effectively destroy all potential intended targets. However, leaders in US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list, which includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.
Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action. But officials also caution that Trump has appeared in the past to lean toward certain actions only to back off at the last moment.
The White House declined to comment.
A senior Pentagon official told USA in a statement, “The USA Department is a planning USA organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the USA President.”
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran and Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of renewed USA attacks by the US and potentially Israel very seriously, according to two additional sources familiar with the matter.
If the US and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis would likely retaliate immediately by targeting American personnel and facilities around the region — and potentially beyond, the sources familiar with those recent US intelligence assessments said.
An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to USA Secretary of State Marco Rubio says US intelligence has found that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel” and plotting efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” CNN previously reported.
US intelligence officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive escalatory attacks against American personnel or Israel at this point but would not hesitate to respond if Iran is targeted first by US or Israeli forces, one of the sources familiar with the latest American intelligence assessments noted.
But the regional threat posed by Iran and the Houthis is one reason why the US is expected to continue quietly pulling personnel from its embassies across the Middle East in the coming days, the source said.
While the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, is the only American diplomatic facility in the region USA under ordered departure, one of the sources told CNN that others are expected to receive similar directives and those that do not will be scaled down under a USA personnel cap.
Additionally, nonessential US military personnel who were expected to deploy to the Middle East as part of the next troop rotation have been told they are no longer being sent, according to a US official, underscoring the possibility of looming regional escalation.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the US military maintains its blockade on Iranian ports and assists shipping traffic through the critical waterway.
Cooper “observed the current operational environment” while flying over the strait in a helicopter, USA CENTCOM said, adding that he met with service members who cleared the waterway of Iranian mines.
“We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,” Cooper said in a news release. “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Despite the increase in tankers transiting the strait, oil prices remain high, partly due to the threat of possible Iranian attacks. One US official acknowledged the status quo around the strait is “untenable” for the long term, and barring a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, is one reason Trump may turn to military action — despite questions about whether the White House has a broader strategy for ending the conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks against Iran, but US officials have requested he delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to two US officials and an Israeli security source.
The US military has drawn up options for renewed attacks on Iran, according to the Washington-based website The Hill, raising the prospect of another round of major fighting in a war approaching its eighth month.
Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees US forces in the Middle East, has plans ready for follow-up strikes if authorised by the White House, the outlet reported. It also said military planners had prepared several options for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
The report focused on possible attacks after the November 3 US midterm elections. But President Donald Trump suggested on Saturday that the United States could strike as soon as “tomorrow”, while also holding out the possibility of a “big, beautiful” agreement with Tehran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, accused Washington of derailing negotiations but said efforts to reach an agreement should continue. With both sides warning of further attacks, could the conflict tip back into full-scale war? Here is what we know.
The latest reporting suggests military preparations are advancing, although it remains unclear which options Trump might approve or when. Earlier this month, Axios reported that the Pentagon had instructed CENTCOM to complete preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations. Its sources said a renewed campaign could target Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear sites.
Those preparations do not amount to an order to attack. The decision ultimately rests with Trump, whose public statements continue to leave room for both military action and negotiations.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, The New York Times reported that the US and Israel have drawn up joint plans for an attack on Iran after the midterm elections. The reports come alongside US warnings about alleged Iranian threats to American personnel overseas. An intelligence memo sent on Friday by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had “substantially increased efforts to target US personnel”, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages” in the Middle East and elsewhere.
The Department of State has ordered staffing reductions at several regional embassies amid the warnings. The publicly reported memo did not identify specific targets or establish when any alleged attacks might occur.
Trump has added to the uncertainty. At a rally on Friday, he said Washington “may do another little Epic Fury”, referring to the codename of the US-Israeli military operation against Iran that began on February 28. On Saturday, he declined to disclose the timing of any possible attack while suggesting one could come as early as Sunday.
Julie Norman, associate fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera the preparations served both as short-term posturing and a possible longer-term military objective next month. “With Trump, I think he is always keeping options on the table, but I think this particular drawing up of plans is an immediate posturing deterrent, but also a very real option after the midterms,” she said.
Tehran has combined calls for further negotiations with warnings that renewed US attacks would bring a wider response. “We were having negotiations, the cowards [Americans] messed everything up,” Pezeshkian said in remarks broadcast on Saturday, before adding that efforts to conclude the agreement should continue.
Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will also miss the 12th BRICS Parliamentary Forum in New Delhi, according to the Iranian Embassy in India. The embassy cited “unforeseen circumstances” without elaborating.
On Sunday, Iran’s army also said it had shot down a US-developed LUCAS drone over the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told.
One reason Trump declined is because Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir told US Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm the elections in Israel and lead to their postponement, the Israeli security source added.
Israel was preparing for the possibility of launching additional attacks against Iran in the last week or so and had been lobbying US officials to support and complement those new strikes, a third source briefed on the matter told CNN. But senior US officials — including Trump — told Israel to hold off, instead signaling the two countries would launch joint operations soon.
Israel appears to have delayed plans in the immediate term for additional strikes but is building up for potential joint operations with the US — likely after the American midterm elections, all of the sources said.
Israel seemed to agree to delaying new strikes on Iran in part because it needs US support for missile defense, the source briefed on the matter added. Iran and the Houthis would likely retaliate against an attack and Israel’s defensive munitions have been strained during the war.
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Netanyahu and his allies still lack a clear strategic objective beyond demonstrating some sort of “progress” and continuing to degrade the Iranian regime, one of the sources familiar with the reports added.
Netanyahu said this week in a speech at an IDF graduation ceremony that his directive to the IDF, the Mossad and other security branches is to topple the regime in Iran.
“The plans are ready, waiting for Trump’s approval, could be after the midterms,”
Posted on 2026/10/26 11:56 AM